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Life is Too Short to Bet the Under, Except For Tonight

posted Sep 15, 2016, 9:23 AM by Austin James   [ updated Sep 15, 2016, 9:23 AM ]
Tonight the Buffalo Bills will face-off against the New York Jets. These are two teams that had a combined 517 yards of total offense (only 300 total passing yards) and 11 sacks in week one. Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had the 11 worth total QBR last week, and the Bills QB Tyrod Taylor sat at 5th worst. The two teams scored a total of 19 points and both took the L.

So what does all of this mean? That 40 point under is going to hit.

Usually I am deathly opposed to betting the under in an NFL game because you never know what can happen. Any team (besides the Browns) can put up points every week, unless you're playing Denver. However, in this case, the stars are aligning. These are two struggling offenses going up against two solid defenses. The Jets defense manhandled the Bengals last week, with the exception of AJ Green; they had 7 sacks and allowed less than 60 rushing yards. The Bills played Joe Flacco (an elite NFL QB), and held him to 13 points, and holding any decent NFL offense to 13 points is an accomplishment.

Offensively, we know the Bills won't be able to run the ball very effectively, and Tyrod Taylor is going to pick their secondary apart. I think Darrelle Revis bounces back after AJ Green embarrassed him last week and has a lockdown game. Sammy Watkins isn't 100% either, also playing into the Jets hands. On the other hand, the Jets offense isn't a ferocious attack either. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't really have a solid receiving core, and he didn't look like a miracle maker last week. Granted Matt Forte still has some spark left in the tank, but that isn't going to come out against a stout Bills rushing defense.

Moral of the story, take the under.